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US Economic Outlook: March 2025

The US markets are moving faster than ever. Stay up to date with a monthly report brought to you by Board Principal Economist Natalie Gallagher.  

Highlights in this month’s report include:   

• Inflation has cooled to 2.8%, with core CPI slowing to 3.1%—the lowest since April 2021. However, the broader inflation trend remains uneven. 

• Tariffs are likely to exacerbate inflation, with the degree of impact contingent on retaliation level, Federal Reserve response, and consumer and business behavior.  

• Persistent inflation can affect consumer expectations, potentially leading to a self-fulfilling cycle of price increases amid economic uncertainty.